The Changing Incidence of Left Displaced Abomasum and Uterine Torsion since the 2001 Uk Fmd Outbreak
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چکیده
Introduction: The UK FMD epidemic of 2001 was the largest the world had ever experienced (Rossides, 2002), resulting in the slaughter of over 4 million animals in support of the control strategy and a further 2.5 million on welfare grounds (Kitching et al 2005). Inevitably a tragedy on this scale ushers in an era of change.Impact analysis assesses the response in a time series to a discrete event or intervention input (Makridakis and Wheelright 1987). This article describes an approach to quantifying the impact of the outbreak on left displaced abomasum (LDA) and uterine torsion diagnoses made by NADIS, a network of 40 veterinary practices and 6 veterinary colleges monitoring diseases in cattle, sheep and pigs throughout the UK. Since its inception in Jan 1997 it has returned monthly counts of veterinary treatments for endemic disease.The object of this study was to test the null hypothesis that there had been no change in incidence or seasonality of LDA and uterine torsion from before the 2001 FMD outbreak to after.Materials and methods: The NADIS data from January 1997 to December 2007 was analysed, bracketing the 2001 UK FMD outbreak (19th February 2001 to 30th September 2001). During that period the population of dairy cows serviced by NADIS vets remained roughly stable at 100,000 cows (M.Howe, pers.comm.). A general model for a time series with a single intervention is given by the following formula:
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تاریخ انتشار 2010